Mcniff Cardiff

Posted onDecember 29, 2011 - 2:24 am by Admin | 0 Comments

The other seat the Conservatives are defending should be a lot easier to hang on to. March North, Cambridgeshire County Council is vacant following the death of Cllr. John West, who secured over 55% of the vote in 2009. The Liberal Democrats were quite a way back in second and they are more likely to drop away than take the seat. Having said that, they were close here in 2005 and they did produce a surprise gain a fortnight ago so I guess anything is technically possible! Even if there is a shock result tomorrow night the Tories will still comfortably control the Council.

There are few examples of Labour failing to defend a seat since the General Election so the by-elections in West Dunbartonshire and Salford should be straightforward holds for the party. As usual, we are mildly excited by the prospect of an AV by-election in Scotland but sadly this one isn't likely to show off the election system we could be using at the next General Election.

The vacancy for the Kilpatrick ward in West Dunbartonshire was caused by the resignation of Labour Councillor Margaret Bootland for health reasons. Both Labour candidates passed the quota on first preferences in 2007 so there is a strong likelihood that only one round of counting will take place. Third and final seat was taken by the SNP but the disparity between vote totals of the elected candidate and his running mate is particularly interesting. Cllr. Jim Finn received 1092 first preferences but the other SNP candidate Frank McNiff only managed 403, which suggests that Finn enjoys a significant personal vote in this ward. The nationalists have selected McNiff as their candidate for this by-election so they actually have even more work to do than the previous result (below) would suggest. The Council is currently run by a minority SNP administration and Labour will hold just one seat less than nationalists if they win tomorrow.

Finally, the by-election for Walkden North, Salford MBC is taking place following the death of Labour Councillor Vincent Devine. He comfortably held his seat in 2008 and as Labour consistently won in this ward during the latter part of the last Government they shouldn't have a problem tomorrow. In the unlikely event they lost Labour would still have a huge majority on the Council.


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